CHICAGO–His long-time associates remember Barack Obama speaking of the beauty of Canada and they think Toronto is just the type of city in which he would find comfort.
But should he prevail in November's presidential election, Obama could follow the lead of his predecessor and visit Mexico first.
That decision by George W. Bush, former governor of Texas, was seen by official Ottawa as foreshadowing a difficult bilateral relationship, a prophesy that came to fruition.
It also broke an informal tradition that dates to 1933, when Franklin D. Roosevelt visited Ottawa.
Obama's choice might boil down to simple politics, some observers say, because he will need the strong support of Latino voters.
A quick visit with Mexico's Felipe Calderon, instead of a jaunt north to America's largest trading partner, would send an important message to those voters.
Republican John McCain visited Ottawa in June, but Obama chose a trip to the Mideast and Europe and is not expected to visit Canada before November.
Both presidential candidates have family links to the GTA: McCain's daughter lives in Toronto; Obama's brother-in-law, Konrad Ng, is from Brampton.
Ng accompanied his wife, Obama's 37-year-old half-sister, Maya Soetoro-Ng, to a Toronto fundraiser in late July, an evening at a private residence where donors attended both general and VIP receptions. The couple wed in 2003 and live in Honolulu.
The leaking of a damaging Canadian memo characterizing Obama's free trade opposition as a position of convenience could also play into Obama's decision about where to make his first official visit if he becomes president, although Canadian officials in the U.S. say the embarrassing incident has not hurt relations with the Obama campaign.
"Toronto is very much the kind of milieu Barack likes," says Jerry Kellman, a lay minister for the Roman Catholic Archdiocese of Chicago, who recruited Obama to the city in 1985.
"It is very much a diverse, international city and that is where Barack is most comfortable."
Martha Minow, a Harvard professor who taught Obama and has remained close to him, says she has heard the candidate speak fondly of Canada.
Minow has lectured at the University of Toronto and has an honorary degree from the university.
"He told me Canada reminds him of New England," Minow says.
"I think Canadians could count on an early visit from him if he is elected."
But Kellman points to a political reality: "Canadians will find him philosophically more in tune with them.
"Hispanics are huge to Democrats, however, and his visibility in Mexico, politically in the United States, will be more important than his visibility with Canada."
