(1)
LAHORE, PAKISTAN–There are fears within Pakistan – and India and the United States – that the departure of Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf will deepen the country's mushrooming crises.
Pakistan is facing two major challenges: the mounting Islamic insurgency, centred in its largely lawless tribal areas that border Afghanistan, and a toppling economy. Inflation here is running at 25 per cent.
Last Wednesday, eight people were killed and more than 30 injured in a suicide bomb attack in Lahore – raising fears that militancy is increasingly spilling out of Pakistan's tribal areas into its towns and cities.
The United States, in particular, fears Musharraf's possible successor, former prime minister Nawaz Sharif – a conservative Muslim with even more conservative followers – would not, as prime minister, prosecute the war on terror with the determination it would like.
In an interview with the Star at his palatial home shortly before Musharraf resigned, Sharif said he was intent on quashing militancy but would seek to reduce America's role in Pakistan.
"We are not opposed to the Americans and I know they have their own fears, but any policy that is devised to deal with these issues should not be perceived as an American issue," he said. "Without the ownership of the people no strategy will work."
More immediately, however, Pakistan's government will be tested by the election of a new president, a process that must take place, according to the constitution, within a month.
There are reports Asif Ali Zardari, the widower of Benazir Bhutto, a man who is widely distrusted in Pakistan, will push for a president from his late wife's Pakistan Peoples Party; Sharif is known to oppose this.
But first, the government plans to reduce the president's powers by altering the constitution. This will require a two-thirds vote in parliament, raising the prospect of a protracted squabble over how the presidency should be reformed – and who should assume the office.
In his televised resignation speech, Musharraf said: "I hope the nation and the people will forgive my mistakes,'' but he also defended his record as a supporter of women's rights and his efforts to curb terrorism.
The outgoing president, who abandoned Pakistan's support of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan and sided with Washington after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, has been largely sidelined since February elections brought his foes to power.
It is not known whether the government will allow him to stay in Pakistan or force him into exile.
"It will take away a symbol of hatred but the essential issues don't end with Musharraf," said Shafqat Mahmood, a former government minister and political analyst.
In recent years, the Taliban movement has strengthened on both sides of the border, fuelled by long-standing poverty, poor governance, frustration with military operations in Pakistan's northwest, and anger at U.S. operations inside Afghanistan. Suspected U.S. missile strikes in Pakistan's northwest tribal regions have only deepened the fury.
This, coupled with Musharraf's decision to impose emergency rule last November, his dismissal of 60 judges and his so-called illegal suspension of the constitution have made him increasingly unpopular over the past year. Many believed Musharraf made these moves to shore up his own power.
The leaders of Pakistan's coalition government – Sharif of the Pakistan Muslim League-N party and Zardari of the Pakistan Peoples Party – announced on Aug. 8 they would seek to impeach Musharraf for imposing the emergency.
But it was Sharif, who as prime minister was toppled by Musharraf in 1999, who pushed hardest for the former army chief's departure. Following Bhutto's assassination in December, Sharif became Pakistan's most popular politician. The PML-N party expects to gain new support from Musharraf's own political group, which split from Sharif's party after he was ousted.
This may soon pitch it against the PPP, a former bitter ally with whom the PML-N has formed a weak, ineffective coalition government following elections in February.
However, most observers hailed Musharraf's exit as a positive step for Pakistan, which has been ruled by the army for more than half its 60-year-existence.
With files from Star wire services
